Patrick Hummel

Patrick Hummel

I am an economist who joined Microsoft in 2019 to work on Microsoft’s cloud business. During the seven years before I joined Microsoft (2012-2019), I worked at Google, first as a research scientist in Google’s Strategic Technologies division, and later as an economist in Google’s Economics Team. I had come to Google after a two-year stint in Yahoo! Research, where I was a research scientist in their Microeconomics and Social Systems group.

I studied at Caltech from 2002-2006. There I graduated first in my undergraduate class with a B.S. in applied and computational mathematics, a B.S. in economics, and an M.S. in chemistry. After graduating from Caltech, I attended Stanford Graduate School of Business on an NSF graduate research fellowship, earning a Ph.D. in economics in 2010.

I have pursued a number of other interests over the course of my life. I am a World Chess Federation Master and a former US National High School Chess Champion. While in high school, I also qualified for the US Chemistry and US Physics Olympiad Teams.

For my CV click here.

Publications:
(Sorted by field---click here for chronological ordering.)

Computer Science

Hummel P, Schwarz M. “Efficient capacity provisioning for firms with multiple locations: the case of the public cloud”. Proceedings of the 23^rd ACM Conference on Economics and Computation (EC) (2022) 1018-1039.
Hummel P, Nadav U. “Bid-limited targeting”. ACM Transactions on Economics and Computation 7, 2 (2019) Article 5.
Ghosh A, Hummel P. “Cardinal contests”. ACM Transactions on Economics and Computation 6, 2 (2018) Article 7.
Hummel P, Nadav U. “Bid-limited targeting”. Proceedings of the 2018 World Wide Web Conference (WWW) (2018) 1329-1338.
Hummel P, McAfee RP. “Machine learning in an auction environment”. Journal of Machine Learning Research 17, 197 (2016) 1-37.
Hummel P, McAfee RP. “When does improved targeting increase revenue?” ACM Transactions on Economics and Computation 5, 1 (2016) Article 4.
Ghosh A, Hummel P. “Cardinal contests”. Proceedings of the 24^th International Conference on the World Wide Web (WWW) (2015) 377-387.
Hummel P, McAfee RP. “When does improved targeting increase revenue?” Proceedings of the 24^th International Conference on the World Wide Web (WWW) (2015) 462-472.
Hummel P, McAfee RP. “Position auctions with externalities”. Proceedings of the 10^th Conference on Web and Internet Economics (WINE) (2014) 417-422. Full version
Bhawalkar K, Hummel P, Vassilvitskii S. “Value of targeting”. Proceedings of the 7^th International Symposium on Algorithmic Game Theory (SAGT) (2014) 194-205. Full version
Hummel P, McAfee RP. “Machine leaning in an auction environment”. Proceedings of the 23^rd International Conference on the World Wide Web (WWW) (2014) 7-18.
Ghosh A, Hummel P. “Learning and incentives in user-generated content: multi-armed bandits with endogenous arms”. Proceedings of the 4^th Conference on Innovations in Theoretical Computer Science (ITCS) (2013) 233-246.
Ghosh A, Hummel P. “Implemeting optimal outcomes in social computing: a game-theoretic approach”. Proceedings of the 21^st International Conference on the World Wide Web (WWW) (2012) 539-548. Full version
Ghosh A, Hummel P. “A game-theoretic analysis of rank-order mechanisms for user-generated content”. Proceedings of the 12^th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce (EC) (2011) 189-198.

Economics

Hummel P, Morgan J, Stocken PC. “Voluntary disclosure of verifiable information with general preferences and information endowment uncertainty”. RAND Journal of Economics (forthcoming).
Hummel P, McAfee RP. “Evolutionary consumers imply monopolies exit”. International Economic Review 59, 4 (2018) 1733-1746.
Hummel P. “Hybrid mechanisms for Vickrey-Clarke-Groves and generalized second-price bids”. International Journal of Game Theory 47, 1 (2018) 331-350.
Hummel P. “Reserve prices in repeated auctions”. International Journal of Game Theory 47, 1 (2018) 273-299.
Hummel P. “How do selling mechanisms affect profits, surplus, capacity, and prices with unknown demand?” Canadian Journal of Economics 51, 1 (2018) 94-126.
Hummel P, McAfee RP. “Loss functions for predicted click-through rates in auctions for online advertising”. Journal of Applied Econometrics 32, 7 (2017) 1314-1328.
Hummel P. “Endogenous budget constraints”. Mathematical Social Sciences 88 (2017) 11-15.
Hummel P, McAfee RP, Vassilvitskii S. “Incentivizing advertiser networks to submit multiple bids”. International Journal of Game Theory 45, 4 (2016) 1031-1052.
Hummel P. “Position auctions with dynamic resizing”. International Journal of Industrial Organization 45 (2016) 38-46.
Hummel P. “Simultaneous use of auctions and posted prices”. European Economic Review 78 (2015) 269-284.
Hummel P, Knight B. “Sequential or simultaneous elections? A welfare analysis”. International Economic Review 56, 3 (2015) 851-887.
Ghosh A, Hummel P. “A game-theoretic analysis of rank-order tournaments for user-generated content”. Journal of Economic Theory 154 (2014) 349-374.
Callander S, Hummel P. “Preemptive policy experimentation”. Econometrica 82, 4 (2014) 1509-1528.
Hummel P. “Pre-election polling and third party candidates”. Social Choice and Welfare 42, 1 (2014) 77-98.
Hummel P, Holden R. “Optimal primaries”. Journal of Public Economics 109, 1 (2014) 64-75.
Hummel P, Morgan J, Stocken PC. “A model of flops”. RAND Journal of Economics 44, 4 (2013) 585-609.
Hummel P. “Candidate strategies in primaries and general elections with candidates of heterogeneous quality”. Games and Economic Behavior 78, 1 (2013) 85-102.
Hummel P. “Deliberative democracy and electoral competition”. Games and Economic Behavior 75, 2 (2012) 646-667.
Hummel P. “Sequential voting in large elections with multiple candidates”. Journal of Public Economics 96, 4 (2012) 341-348.
Hummel P. “Deliberation in large juries with diverse preferences”. Public Choice 150, 3 (2012) 595-608.
Hummel P. “Proportional versus winner-take-all electoral vote allocations”. Public Choice 148, 3 (2011) 381-393.
Hummel P. “Information aggregation in multicandidate elections under plurality rule and runoff voting”. Mathematical Social Sciences 62, 1 (2011) 1-6.
Hummel P. “Abstention and signaling in large repeated elections”. Games and Economic Behavior 72, 2 (2011) 586-593.
Hummel P. “Flip-flopping from primaries to general elections”. Journal of Public Economics 94, 11 (2010) 1020-1027.
Hummel P. “On the nature of equilibria in a Downsian model with candidate valence”. Games and Economic Behavior 70, 2 (2010) 65-103.
Hummel P. “Jury theorems with multiple alternatives”. Social Choice and Welfare 34, 1 (2010) 65-103.
Hummel P. “Buying supermajorities in a stochastic environment”. Public Choice 141, 3 (2009) 351-369.
Hummel P. “Iterative elimination of weakly dominated strategies in binary voting agendas with sequential voting”. Social Choice and Welfare 31, 2 (2008) 257-269.

Mathematics

Hummel P. “On consecutive quadratic non-residues: a conjecture of Issai Schur”. Journal of Number Theory 103, 2 (2003) 257-266.
Hummel P. “Solid constructions using ellipses”. Pi Mu Epsilon Journal 11, 8 (2003) 429-435.

Natural Sciences

Hummel P, Winkler JR, Gray HB. “Electronic structures of tetragonal nitrido and nitrosyl metal complexes”. Theoretical Chemistry Accounts 119, 1 (2008) 35-38.
Hummel P, Gray HB. “Strikingly similar electronic structures of [Mn(N)(CN)₅]^3- and [Mn(NO)(CN)₅]^3-”. Coordination Chemistry Reviews 151, 4 (2007) 554-556.
Hummel P, Halpern-Manners N, Gray HB. “Electronic excited states of tetracyanonickelate(II)”. Inorganic Chemistry 45, 18 (2006) 7397-7400.
Hummel P, Winkler JR, Gray HB. “Electronic structures of trans-dioxometal complexes”. Dalton Transactions 1 (2006) 168-171.
Hummel P, Oxgaard J, Goddard WA III, Gray HB. “Ligand field excited states of metal hexacarbonyls”. Inorganic Chemistry 44, 7 (2005) 2454-2458.
Hummel P, Vaidehi N, Floriano WB, Hall SE, Goddard WA III. “Test of the Binding Threshold Hypothesis for olfactory receptors: Explanation of the differential binding of ketones to the mouse and human orthologs of olfactory receptor 912-93”. Protein Science 14, 3 (2005) 703-710.
Hummel P, Oxgaard J, Goddard WA III, Gray HB. “Ligand field strengths of carbon monoxide and cyanide in octahedral coordination”. Journal of Coordination Chemistry 58, 1 (2005) 41-45.
Lee JC, Langen R, Hummel P, Gray HB, Winkler JR. “α-Synuclein structures from fluorescence-energy transfer kinetics: Implications for the role of the protein in Parkinson’s disease”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 101, 47 (2004) 16466-16471.

Political Science

Hummel P. “Strategic ambiguity about military capacity with multiple adversaries”. Journal of Theoretical Politics 27, 2 (2015) 288-300.
Hummel P, Rothschild D. “Fundamental models for forecasting elections at the state level”. Electoral Studies 35 (2014) 123-139.
Hummel P. “Resource allocation when different candidates are stronger on different issues”. Journal of Theoretical Politics 25, 1 (2013) 128-149.
Hummel P. “Pre-election polling and sequential elections”. Journal of Theoretical Politics 23, 4 (2011) 463-479.
Hummel P. “Sequential voting when long elections are costly”. Economics and Politics 23, 1 (2011) 36-58.

Other

Hummel P. “Crucial decisions of the second world war”. The Concord Review 12, 1 (2001) 177-202.

Patents:

Hummel P, Nadav U. “Optimized digital component analysis system”. US Patent 10747821 (2020).
Zhong Q, Mehta A, Hummel P, Bhawalkar KU, Sun S, Aggarwal G. “Optimized digitial component analysis system”. US Patent 10397056 (2019).
Hummel P. “Choosing allocations and prices in position auctions”. US Patent 10269045 (2019).
Hummel P, Varian HR. “System and method for providing context-based third-party content”. US Patent 10182123 (2019).
Hummel P, McAfee RP. “Performance based content item ranking”. US Patent 9996851 (2018).
Hummel P, McAfee RP, Dillon JV, Harris CK, Lipus TS. “Ranking content items using predicted performance”. US Patent 9256688 (2016).

Video of David Baltimore (former Caltech President and 1975 Nobel Laureate in Medicine) speaking about my undergraduate research.

NSTMF profile of Ralph Hirschmann (my grandfather) being awarded the National Medal of Science.

Last updated February 2023.