Patrick Hummel   I am an economist who joined Microsoft in 2019 to work on Microsoft’s cloud business. During the seven years before I joined Microsoft (2012-2019), I worked at Google, first as a research scientist in Google’s Strategic Technologies division, and later as an economist in Google’s Economics Team. I had come to Google after a two-year stint in Yahoo! Research, where I was a research scientist in their Microeconomics and Social Systems group. I studied at Caltech from 2002-2006. There I graduated first in my undergraduate class with a B.S. in applied and computational mathematics, a B.S. in economics, and an M.S. in chemistry. After graduating from Caltech, I attended Stanford Graduate School of Business on an NSF graduate research fellowship, earning a Ph.D. in economics in 2010. I have pursued a number of other interests over the course of my life. I am a World Chess Federation Master and a former US National High School Chess Champion. While in high school, I also qualified for the US Chemistry and US Physics Olympiad Teams.   For my CV click here.

2023

• Hummel P, Morgan J, Stocken PC. “Voluntary disclosure of verifiable information with general preferences and information endowment uncertainty”. RAND Journal of Economics (forthcoming).

2022

• Hummel P, Schwarz M. “Efficient capacity provisioning for firms with multiple locations: the case of the public cloud”. Proceedings of the 23^rd ACM Conference on Economics and Computation (EC) (2022) 1018-1039.

2019

• Hummel P, Nadav U. “Bid-limited targeting”. ACM Transactions on Economics and Computation 7, 2 (2019) Article 5.

2018

• Hummel P, McAfee RP. “Evolutionary consumers imply monopolies exit”. International Economic Review 59, 4 (2018) 1733-1746.
• Ghosh A, Hummel P. “Cardinal contests”. ACM Transactions on Economics and Computation 6, 2 (2018) Article 7.
• Hummel P, Nadav U. “Bid-limited targeting”. Proceedings of the 2018 World Wide Web Conference (WWW) (2018) 1329-1338.
• Hummel P. “Hybrid mechanisms for Vickrey-Clarke-Groves and generalized second-price bids”. International Journal of Game Theory 47, 1 (2018) 331-350.
• Hummel P. “Reserve prices in repeated auctions”. International Journal of Game Theory 47, 1 (2018) 273-299.
• Hummel P. “How do selling mechanisms affect profits, surplus, capacity, and prices with unknown demand?” Canadian Journal of Economics 51, 1 (2018) 94-126.

2017

• Hummel P, McAfee RP. “Loss functions for predicted click-through rates in auctions for online advertising”. Journal of Applied Econometrics 32, 7 (2017) 1314-1328.
• Hummel P. “Endogenous budget constraints”. Mathematical Social Sciences 88 (2017) 11-15.

2016

• Hummel P, McAfee RP. “Machine learning in an auction environment”. Journal of Machine Learning Research 17, 197 (2016) 1-37.
• Hummel P, McAfee RP, Vassilvitskii S. “Incentivizing advertiser networks to submit multiple bids”. International Journal of Game Theory 45, 4 (2016) 1031-1052.
• Hummel P, McAfee RP. “When does improved targeting increase revenue?” ACM Transactions on Economics and Computation 5, 1 (2016) Article 4.
• Hummel P. “Position auctions with dynamic resizing”. International Journal of Industrial Organization 45 (2016) 38-46.

2015

• Hummel P. “Simultaneous use of auctions and posted prices”. European Economic Review 78 (2015) 269-284.
• Hummel P, Knight B. “Sequential or simultaneous elections? A welfare analysis”. International Economic Review 56, 3 (2015) 851-887.
• Ghosh A, Hummel P. “Cardinal contests”. Proceedings of the 24^th International Conference on the World Wide Web (WWW) (2015) 377-387.
• Hummel P, McAfee RP. “When does improved targeting increase revenue?” Proceedings of the 24^th International Conference on the World Wide Web (WWW) (2015) 462-472.
• Hummel P. “Strategic ambiguity about military capacity with multiple adversaries”. Journal of Theoretical Politics 27, 2 (2015) 288-300.

2014

• Hummel P, McAfee RP. “Position auctions with externalities”. Proceedings of the 10^th Conference on Web and Internet Economics (WINE) (2014) 417-422. Full version
• Ghosh A, Hummel P. “A game-theoretic analysis of rank-order tournaments for user-generated content”. Journal of Economic Theory 154 (2014) 349-374.
• Bhawalkar K, Hummel P, Vassilvitskii S. “Value of targeting”. Proceedings of the 7^th International Symposium on Algorithmic Game Theory (SAGT) (2014) 194-205. Full version
• Hummel P, Rothschild D. “Fundamental models for forecasting elections at the state level”. Electoral Studies 35 (2014) 123-139.
• Callander S, Hummel P. “Preemptive policy experimentation”. Econometrica 82, 4 (2014) 1509-1528.
• Hummel P, McAfee RP. “Machine leaning in an auction environment”. Proceedings of the 23^rd International Conference on the World Wide Web (WWW) (2014) 7-18.
• Hummel P. “Pre-election polling and third party candidates”. Social Choice and Welfare 42, 1 (2014) 77-98.
• Hummel P, Holden R. “Optimal primaries”. Journal of Public Economics 109, 1 (2014) 64-75.

2013

• Hummel P, Morgan J, Stocken PC. “A model of flops”. RAND Journal of Economics 44, 4 (2013) 585-609.
• Hummel P. “Candidate strategies in primaries and general elections with candidates of heterogeneous quality”. Games and Economic Behavior 78, 1 (2013) 85-102.
• Ghosh A, Hummel P. “Learning and incentives in user-generated content: multi-armed bandits with endogenous arms”. Proceedings of the 4^th Conference on Innovations in Theoretical Computer Science (ITCS) (2013) 233-246.
• Hummel P. “Resource allocation when different candidates are stronger on different issues”. Journal of Theoretical Politics 25, 1 (2013) 128-149.

2012

• Hummel P. “Deliberative democracy and electoral competition”. Games and Economic Behavior 75, 2 (2012) 646-667.
• Ghosh A, Hummel P. “Implemeting optimal outcomes in social computing: a game-theoretic approach”. Proceedings of the 21^st International Conference on the World Wide Web (WWW) (2012) 539-548. Full version
• Hummel P. “Sequential voting in large elections with multiple candidates”. Journal of Public Economics 96, 4 (2012) 341-348.
• Hummel P. “Deliberation in large juries with diverse preferences”. Public Choice 150, 3 (2012) 595-608.

2011

• Hummel P. “Pre-election polling and sequential elections”. Journal of Theoretical Politics 23, 4 (2011) 463-479.
• Hummel P. “Proportional versus winner-take-all electoral vote allocations”. Public Choice 148, 3 (2011) 381-393.
• Hummel P. “Information aggregation in multicandidate elections under plurality rule and runoff voting”. Mathematical Social Sciences 62, 1 (2011) 1-6.
• Ghosh A, Hummel P. “A game-theoretic analysis of rank-order mechanisms for user-generated content”. Proceedings of the 12^th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce (EC) (2011) 189-198.
• Hummel P. “Abstention and signaling in large repeated elections”. Games and Economic Behavior 72, 2 (2011) 586-593.
• Hummel P. “Sequential voting when long elections are costly”. Economics and Politics 23, 1 (2011) 36-58.

2010

• Hummel P. “Flip-flopping from primaries to general elections”. Journal of Public Economics 94, 11 (2010) 1020-1027.
• Hummel P. “On the nature of equilibria in a Downsian model with candidate valence”. Games and Economic Behavior 70, 2 (2010) 65-103.
• Hummel P. “Jury theorems with multiple alternatives”. Social Choice and Welfare 34, 1 (2010) 65-103.

2009

• Hummel P. “Buying supermajorities in a stochastic environment”. Public Choice 141, 3 (2009) 351-369.

2008

• Hummel P. “Iterative elimination of weakly dominated strategies in binary voting agendas with sequential voting”. Social Choice and Welfare 31, 2 (2008) 257-269.
• Hummel P, Winkler JR, Gray HB. “Electronic structures of tetragonal nitrido and nitrosyl metal complexes”. Theoretical Chemistry Accounts 119, 1 (2008) 35-38.

2007

• Hummel P, Gray HB. “Strikingly similar electronic structures of [Mn(N)(CN)₅]^3- and [Mn(NO)(CN)₅]^3-”. Coordination Chemistry Reviews 151, 4 (2007) 554-556.

2006

• Hummel P, Halpern-Manners N, Gray HB. “Electronic excited states of tetracyanonickelate(II)”. Inorganic Chemistry 45, 18 (2006) 7397-7400.
• Hummel P, Winkler JR, Gray HB. “Electronic structures of trans-dioxometal complexes”. Dalton Transactions 1 (2006) 168-171.

2005

• Hummel P, Oxgaard J, Goddard WA III, Gray HB. “Ligand field excited states of metal hexacarbonyls”. Inorganic Chemistry 44, 7 (2005) 2454-2458.
• Hummel P, Vaidehi N, Floriano WB, Hall SE, Goddard WA III. “Test of the Binding Threshold Hypothesis for olfactory receptors: Explanation of the differential binding of ketones to the mouse and human orthologs of olfactory receptor 912-93”. Protein Science 14, 3 (2005) 703-710.
• Hummel P, Oxgaard J, Goddard WA III, Gray HB. “Ligand field strengths of carbon monoxide and cyanide in octahedral coordination”. Journal of Coordination Chemistry 58, 1 (2005) 41-45.

2004

• Lee JC, Langen R, Hummel P, Gray HB, Winkler JR. “α-Synuclein structures from fluorescence-energy transfer kinetics: Implications for the role of the protein in Parkinson’s disease”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 101, 47 (2004) 16466-16471.

2003

• Hummel P. “On consecutive quadratic non-residues: a conjecture of Issai Schur”. Journal of Number Theory 103, 2 (2003) 257-266.
• Hummel P. “Solid constructions using ellipses”. Pi Mu Epsilon Journal 11, 8 (2003) 429-435.

2001

• Hummel P. “Crucial decisions of the second world war”. The Concord Review 12, 1 (2001) 177-202.

Patents:

• Hummel P, Nadav U. “Optimized digital component analysis system”. US Patent 10747821 (2020).
• Zhong Q, Mehta A, Hummel P, Bhawalkar KU, Sun S, Aggarwal G. “Optimized digitial component analysis system”. US Patent 10397056 (2019).
• Hummel P. “Choosing allocations and prices in position auctions”. US Patent 10269045 (2019).
• Hummel P, Varian HR. “System and method for providing context-based third-party content”. US Patent 10182123 (2019).
• Hummel P, McAfee RP. “Performance based content item ranking”. US Patent 9996851 (2018).
• Hummel P, McAfee RP, Dillon JV, Harris CK, Lipus TS. “Ranking content items using predicted performance”. US Patent 9256688 (2016).